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Failing to Understand the Exponential, Again

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Type: Web Article Original link: https://www.julian.ac/blog/2025/09/27/failing-to-understand-the-exponential-again/ Publication date: 2025-09-29

Author: Julian Schrittwieser


Summary
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WHAT - Article discussing AI and its exponential growth. It addresses the misperception of AI progress and uses data from recent studies to demonstrate the exponential growth of AI capabilities.

WHY - Relevant for understanding the speed of AI capability evolution and for avoiding evaluation errors that can influence business strategies.

WHO - Julian Schrittwieser (author), METR (AI research organization), OpenAI (AI model developers), Epoch AI (AI research).

WHERE - In the context of the AI market, focusing on performance evaluations and exponential growth trends.

WHEN - Published in 2025, reflecting current trends and future projections up to 2030.

BUSINESS IMPACT:

  • Opportunities: Use concrete data to plan AI integration strategies, anticipating future capabilities.
  • Risks: Underestimating AI progress can lead to outdated strategies and loss of competitiveness.
  • Integration: Adapt the existing technology stack to support advanced and scalable AI models.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY:

  • Core technology stack: Advanced AI models (Sonnet, Grok, Opus, GPT), evaluation studies (METR, GDPval).
  • Scalability: Models that autonomously complete increasingly long tasks, indicating exponential scalability.
  • Technical differentiators: Use of empirical evaluations and real data to demonstrate growth trends, highlighting the importance of accurate AI capability assessment.

Use Cases
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  • Private AI Stack: Integration into proprietary pipelines
  • Client Solutions: Implementation for client projects

Resources
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Original Links #


Article recommended and selected by the Human Technology eXcellence team, processed through artificial intelligence (in this case with LLM HTX-EU-Mistral3.1Small) on 2025-09-29 13:10 Original source: https://www.julian.ac/blog/2025/09/27/failing-to-understand-the-exponential-again/

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